By Alexander Sanger
July 15, 2026
The sky is falling! The sky is falling! There has been a hailstone of articles in the press about the falling birth rate of the United States (and worldwide) with accompanying predictions that it is the end for our country and way of life. Various experts of varying political persuasions try to sort out the reasons why and pontificate what, if anything, to do about it. Falling fertility rates are hardly new news nor are any of the explanations or remedies proffered. Nonetheless, major publications including The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal have leapt into the fray, as have other publications, including The Atlantic and The Economist. A slow hot summer in the newsroom?
The U.S. total fertility rate (TFR) now stands at 1.57. The world TFR average is approaching 2.1, which is equivalent to the replacement rate. Sub Saharan Africa is largely above this rate while the rest of the world is below it. It will take decades for world population to stabilize, so population will continue to grow assuming birth rates stay as they are, which they won’t. They never do. Some countries, Japan (TFR 1.1), Russia (TFR 1.4) and China (TFR 1.0) for example, are losing population now. A nation’s population size is due to several factor besides birth rates: death rates, emigration rates and immigration rates. There isn’t much immigration to these countries. Russia’s attempt to absorb Ukraine is one solution to its declining population. Is absorbing Taiwan to be China’s solution? In short, nations care about population size. Nations want to continue, not fade away. Their way of life, their culture, their language all matter to them. Nations believe they are a gift to the planet. Yet their people are falling short, aren’t doing their part in this national aspiration. So, why?
Anna Sussman’s article in The New York Times on May 10, 2026 (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/opinion/birthrate-kids-parents-demographics-future.html) argues that falling fertility rates, which remain stubbornly below the replacement rate, are the result of a world seen by potential parents as too uncertain and unpredictable in ways vastly different from the past. The economy, society and public health – all have been disrupted and now appear more volatile than ever. The Great Recession of 2007-2009 followed by the Covid pandemic are two examples. In sum, argues Sussman, potential parents live in an era of “polycrisis” and don’t see a world hospitable to having children. Other villains in the reproductive environment include nonstop digital information, and a decline in culture, family values and religion. And then there is an increase in the use of long acting contraception, which has reduced teen pregnancy in a spectacular fashion. However, it has probably also reduced everyone else’s fertility. All these factors combine, she argues, to delays in meeting suitable mates and marriage, which lead in the long-term to fewer children born because there is less of a fertility window for women in which to have children.
Women’s expanded access to education, as is pointed out in The Wall Street Journal article on June 6, 2026 by Heidi Mitchell (https://www.wsj.com/health/wellness/us-fertility-rate-impact-f8024b33), has led to women running out of the biological clock while still looking for a suitable mate. Finding an affordable home, getting job stability and later searches for a mate all lead to reduced baby-making window, as well as to increase in infertility (which affects at least one in six people) as women give birth, or try to, later in life.
The Mitchell article points out, rightly, that governmental intervention with subsidies and other inducements works only at the margins and may affect the timing of children, but not the ultimate number. Nonetheless, governments keep trying. The government of Turkey (TFR 1.5) recently extended parental leave for mothers and fathers (less for fathers), and also made cash payments for the birth of additional children. Experience in Western Europe shows these incentives are essentially a waste of money. (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/17/world/europe/erdogan-turkey-demography-babies-family-planning-economy.html)
In another recent Times article of July 11, 2026 on Emma Waters of the Heritage Foundation (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/08/us/politics/emma-waters-restorative-reproduction.html), which supports financial incentives for marriage before age 30 and bonuses for more than two children, revealed that she supports only low tech methods to treat infertility and not the more high tech methods. I examine early childbearing as sometimes a successful reproductive strategy for certain parents in my book, Beyond Choice: Reproductive Freedom in the 21st Century. It is not a universal solution for all.
In a recent opinion piece in the Times, Lyman Stone, of the Institute for Family Studies, (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/11/opinion/population-forecast-birth-rate.html) after bemoaning that our nation’s population is not at one billion (seriously?), calls for, “serious money aimed at the people doing the work of raising the next generation of Americans, an end to the marriage penalties woven through our tax and welfare codes, a surge in building family-size houses on par with the one during the last baby boom, and a culture that treats children as a future worth having rather than a lifestyle expense.” Conservatives like big government when it funds a baby boom.
Perhaps a cultural change at far less expense is called for. Another Times article of July 12, 2026 entitled, “Did America Style ‘Gentle Parenting’ Spoil French Children”, (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/magazine/american-parenting-french-children.html) Madeline Schwartz compares receptivity to children in France and Sweden where greater gender equality and openness to children in public spaces mean that parents and children can more easily coexist. “Four percent of Swedish parents say their children limit their freedom… In France the figure was 38%.” That said, France’s fertility rate is higher than Sweden’s.
One possible explanation for falling fertility that is noticeably absent or minimized in all these recent articles is the role, or lack thereof, of men. There was mention of women delaying finding mates but little, if any, about the quality or quantity of the males in the eligibility pool or other matters relating to mating and reproductive strategy. Are men delaying finding suitable women as much as the reverse? Are men dropping out of the reproductive dance? Are men nothing to write home about?
In recent articles there are three mentions of certain male behaviors that women see as an anathema for men as potential mates and fathers of their children. First, machismo. Derek Thompson, in an article entitled “The Great Depopulation” in The Atlantic, (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/05/global-birthrate-decline/687297/) interviews economist Fernández Villaverde, who makes the point that economies are now more service based, which means that people work in shops and offices rather than on the land or factories. These jobs are easier for women to take than men because they do not depend on physical strength. Villaverde says, “in Mexico, Brazil or Colombia if you are a woman 22 or 23 years old with a decent job in the service sector and a guy comes to you and tells you, ‘if we get married, I’m going to be the macho in the home ruling everything and you are going to work for me all the time and we’re going to have three kids,’ you tell the guy no.” Over half the births in Latin America are to single women. (https://webfs.oecd.org/Els-com/Family_Database/SF_2_4_Share_births_outside_marriage.pdf)
Second, more machismo. The Economist article on “India’s Baby Bust” (TFR 1.9) (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/06/04/indias-surprise-baby-bust-is-a-warning-to-the-world) points out that there is a waning tradition of living as an extended family. Now 70% live in nuclear families because of urbanization and changes in the labor market. The article continues, “this makes childcare a bigger burden and creates an incentive to limit family size, but most Indian men do not seem to have noticed, ‘my husband sometimes washes his own plate’, says Kavitha Kannon, a farmer and mother of two from Tamil Nadu.”
And third, still more machismo. Anna Sussman in her Times article talks about having a religious faith being indicative of having larger families. However, she notes that more Americans are identifying as ‘other’ or ‘none’ in surveys, and she also states: “of particular relevance is the rate of which women are fleeing the fold.” Sussman then adds parenthetically that one of her interviewees is “appalled by the manosphere.”
The conclusion of this cursory discussion of mating comes in the Journal article by Heidi Mitchell, where she notes the risk of women “running out of the biological clock while still looking for a suitable mate.” Note the word ‘suitable’ here. She does not elaborate except to quote Professor Claudia Goldin: “It takes two to make a baby and it takes two to raise a baby. If women are required to do most of the work racing children, we will have fewer children when women have greater autonomy. Men have to step up to care for the children they want.”
So, the discussion of males in these not-so-exhaustive articles on declining fertility comes down to cursory mentions of: macho males, the manosphere, men not sharing housework and child rearing and some males becoming more religious while women are not. These all seem to be correctable behaviors. So, men, shape up! Change your culture.
So, what is left out in these articles? One factor in declining human fertility might be increased infertility. Mitchell does state that infertility affects one in six people, but she does not discuss male infertility, only female. In fact, female and male infertility rates are close to equal (female slightly more). Causes included: lifestyle, environmental factors, health factors and delayed childbearing. There are multiple studies on whether or not male sperm counts are declining, but there is no mention here. Same with male testosterone counts. Diabetes, obesity, alcohol – there are villains galore in male behavior, aside from environmental toxins which are all too real. (https://www.fertstert.org/article/S0015-0282(25)01995-8/fulltext)
Beyond culture and infertility, are there are larger forces at work here?
As none of the authors bother to point out, fertility has been dropping in some countries for centuries, for instance France since the late 18th Century and the U.S. since the early 19th. This “demographic transition” is well known, exhaustively studied and argued about. Economic and societal forces, the cost of children and their education, the decline of farming, rise of cities, changing culture, declining religion (but not everywhere) and the changing role of women, and the widespread use of birth control and safe, and unsafe, abortion, have led to a declining birthrate worldwide in every culture and religion. Fears of the collapse of the social security and pension systems and minoritization of majority races are paramount in the fertility panic in Western countries. In contrast, some of the more ecologically minded welcome a someday decreasing world population to ease the strain on natural resources and the environment.
Is this reduction in fertility deliberate or unplanned? Wanted or unwanted? A choice or unconscious? Is it an idea, an aspiration?
Men, women and couples do not always have the number of children they say they want. Studies have shown that 20% of women in developed countries are having fewer children than they had planned on. Reasons include financial reasons, little or no access to fertility drugs and a view that the world was inhospitable into which to bring and raise a child. On the contrary, some women in developing countries have more children than they want. About 40% or more of pregnancies in the U.S are unplanned; the same is true in low-income countries. Not all have access to reliable contraception. Hence the high abortion rate worldwide, whether it is legal or illegal. All this I examine in Beyond Choice: Reproductive Freedom in the 21st Century. “Unintended pregnancy” has to do with mating, and mate selection and reproductive strategy. Over half of these unplanned pregnancies end in abortion, and the remainder, less miscarriages, are, over nine months, converted into wanted childbirth. For those who blame birth control and abortion for the low birthrate, the solution is criminalize them. The U.S. did that beginning in the 1840s, or earlier, as the white Protestant birthrate was falling. The overturn of Roe v. Wade was not coincidental to the falling white birthrate since the Great Recession. Russia and China too are gradually restricting access to abortion and birth control. While U.S. national abortion numbers have risen since the overturn of Roe, driven largely by telehealth and interstate access, research shows births have increased in states with bans, with an estimated 32,000 additional births annually, disproportionately among young women and women of color, not the births that the Trump Administration wants.
Is there an argument that fertility and population move in cycles depending on the environment? Do external factors, including natural disasters, and the economy affect human fertility? Didn’t Darwin say that it is the most adaptable species that survive. Is the reduced fertility an adaptation to a new environment?
So, speaking of environment, we have seen its effect before with various plagues and natural disasters that have resulted in reduced fertility and population. In the medieval world, there was the bubonic plague, aka the Black Death, which killed perhaps a third or half of the population of Europe. To say that the plague introduced uncertainty and anxiety, and an end to predictable progress is an understatement. It was a profound disruption of a way of life. A ‘polycrisis’ indeed.
Demographers and historians have studied the effect of the plague on fertility with the challenge that there are relatively few accurate birth records or, for that matter, death records. They have found that repeated plague-related shocks might have ultimately triggered fertility reduction by fostering female employment (because of fewer males to work) and by delaying marriage and childbirth, and that plague shocks may have favored investments in child quality rather than quantity.
More recently in the 20th century, demographers have examined fertility rates after the outbreak of the 1918 influenza epidemic and found a decline in fertility across nations. The more recent Zika outbreak in Brazil led to a similar finding, as did Covid. One could argue that modernity taken as a whole is a natural disaster or a plague and is having the same effect on fertility as the Black Death, with the exception that it is lasting longer than the flu epidemic or Covid.
But, back to the males. It has been argued that males are in a two-fold spiral down: women control contraception more than ever and men, relative to females, are earning less, though there remains the stubborn wage gap. Women are taking control of their lives, reproductive and otherwise, and are getting more education and delaying children until they are more settled. With men getting less education (there are more women in college then men), there are fewer peer mates out there for women. Do women settle for a lower status male? Some. Go younger or older? Some. Go without and use artificial means to have a baby. Some. Get pregnant by someone else’s husband? Is all fair in love and war? Yes. Fair has nothing to do with it. Successful reproduction does. It seems that the lower status males are the ones not having children. It has always been thus. Because of the stresses and dangers of childbearing and childrearing, women are seeking reliable, supportive males. Women do the choosing. In the current climate some males are decreasingly suitable to be eligible. The resulting manosphere of those not chosen feeds on itself with anger and resentment.
Some men have responded by taking on more responsibility for child rearing. I see it daily in the park. Other men live in their parent’s basement and play video games. See Nicholas Eberstadt’s landmark 2016 study, Men Without Work. One in three men are out of work in the U.S. – the highest figure recorded, and one in three men under age 35 live in their parents’ home. There is anecdotal evidence that, as was reported by Sussman, men are joining male centered churchesor the manosphere with an anti-woman ideology. Some men on the extreme Right want to repeal the 19th Amendment and require women to stay home and have children. Not exactly the type of man most women want to father and raise her children. It can be argued that anti-DEI programs are aimed at increasing white male education and employment. While it’s true that some men are nothing to write home about, most are suitable husband/father material. Perhaps one investment is to compensate the child-care parent, be it the father or mother. Parenting is the most exhaustive, time consuming job on the planet. And it is uncompensated except emotionally. So, do we pay men to be fathers? You get more children and get men off the couch.
Whatever we do, we must keep reproductive freedom and invest in women having the children they what. Men and women each have reproductive interests, goals and strategies. Most want to have children and have them survive and be healthy. The choice of a partner and the timing of childbirth are crucial to each as well as the number of children to have. Reproductive freedom is vital to male and female reproductive success. Yes, biological differences means that there is a battle of the sexes for control of reproduction, but there can be cooperation.
Women, thankfully, are now largely in control of their sex lives and reproduction. That said, there are women in the Third World who are not, and we at Fos Feminista are endeavoring to reach them through health and education services, advocacy and outreach. There are women in the First World similarly who are not getting services, especially after the U.S. Government cut off Medicaid funding from Planned Parenthood. Is this U.S. cut of access to family planning a way to increase the birthrate? It is the poor who are affected, the minorities; these are not the population that the Trump Administration wants reproducing. But whoever said Trump’s policies made sense.
The Trump Administration’s reaction to the recent birthrate figures called for a New U.S. Baby Boom. The Administration is revamping (i.e. eliminating) the Title X program which has supported contraception for low income women since its inception in the Nixon Administration. Now the program, according to a CBS news report, will focus on fertility, family formation, and reproductive health conditions such as polycystic ovary syndrome, endometriosis, low testosterone, and erectile dysfunction. No contraception, which the program now describes as over prescribed and associated with damaging side effects. This is more of the typical Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. attack on medicine, but worse. Contraception isn’t overprescribed; women use it because they want to prevent pregnancy and time and limit their pregnancies. Over 80% of women of reproductive age use contraception annually. The only silver lining for males in this announcement is that male infertility is recognized as deserving of treatment. Men’s partners are now not going to get subsidized contraception as they have been able to for over 50 years. The Title X program is geared now to healthy pregnancies instead of preventing unintended pregnancies. Will it increase unintended and unhealthy pregnancies and abortion rates? Probably. Will men and women have more undiagnosed STDs and hence infertility? Yes. Will it increase birthrates? Yes. (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-birth-rate-pregnancy-contraception-title-x/)
Trump also wants to make IVF more affordable. That is good news for couples struggling with the cost of treatment and will probably lead to an increased birthrate. But infertility is only part of the birthrate decline. It is estimated that halving the cost of IVF will lead to about an additional 150,000 births annually in the U.S. or would offset one-fifth of the decline in births since 2007. It is not a panacea. (https://www.newsweek.com/trump-ivf-prices-study-good-news-birth-rate-12190423)
There is no panacea. Huge societal, economic and cultural forces need to work themselves out, and humanity needs to adapt to them if they can’t be changed. Men’s needs and issues need to be part of the discussion, not just dismissed as the irredeemable Manosphere. Culture can be changed by men, machismo discarded by men, the manosphere abandoned by men. Men have to do their part.
Public policies matter and not just those affecting access to legal birth control and abortion. Tariffs were meant to increase U.S. employment. They haven’t. Fiddling with the tax code to reduce the so-called marriage penalty hasn’t increased marriage. With birth rates falling worldwide, in some cases for 200 years or more, quick fixes might gain political points but not address the serious underlying economic and social issues.
I suspect humanity will right itself. Couples will decide, as Sussman says at the end of her article, that the world isn’t so bad, and they’ll give parenting a shot. I think, like Sussman’s couple, they will get accustomed to the various “Polycrises”, treat them as the new normal and plunge ahead to have children.
Sources:
https://webfs.oecd.org/Els-com/Family_Database/SF_2_4_Share_births_outside_marriage.pdf
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-birth-rate-pregnancy-contraception-title-x
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-ivf-prices-study-good-news-birth-rate-12190423
https://www.wsj.com/health/wellness/us-fertility-rate-impact-f8024b33
https://www.fertstert.org/article/S0015-0282(25)01995-8/fulltext
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/06/04/indias-surprise-baby-bust-is-a-warning-to-the-world
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/05/global-birthrate-decline/687297





