Consensus seems to be that the 2026 midterm election was a referendum on Trump and the economy – the Iran war, gas prices, food prices, inflation, rampant corruption – the feeling that the government was being run for the rich, the Elon Musks of the world. There was a difference of opinion on whether abortion rights were a defining issue, except in those few places where they clearly were. The Wall Street Journal columnist Joseph C. Sternberg called the culture wars finished as motivators with states passing legislation that approximates public opinion. Republicans need an economic message, he argues – I suspect from knowing that abortion is a loser for Republicans. See https://www.wsj.com/opinion/culture-wars-wont-save-the-gop-0298cf30?mod=opinion_recentauth_pos_3
On the other side, Alice Miranda Ollstein in Politico called abortion a dealbreaker in many voter’s minds, which it clearly is. The majority support repeal of criminal abortion laws; just look at the referenda record since Dobbs. Overwhelmingly voters have supported legal abortion. There have been votes in 19 states, some more than once. Until this year only Florida (though it won a majority – 60% was required), Nebraska and South Dakota failed. See: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/11/04/abortion-resurfaces-as-a-decisive-issue-amid-blue-wave-01148984 and see: https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/the-status-of-abortion-related-state-ballot-initiatives-since-dobbs/
How did abortion do this year?
In four states there were abortion referenda and pro-abortion side won three. The referendum to overturn Idaho law was not contested by the pro-choice side since the result could be overturned by the anti-choice legislature (56% opposed the referenda about equal to the 57% supporting the Republican candidate for Governor). The dire OB-GYN crisis in Idaho will continue until the law is changed.
However, in Missouri (55%), Virginia (62%) and Nevada (63%) the pro-abortion referenda won. I would add that Maine was an abortion rights vote with Troy Jackson unseating Susan Collins (53%-47%) who was attacked for her support of the anti-choice Supreme Court Justice, Brett Kavanaugh. In the Michigan senate race, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed attacked his Republican opponent’s anti-choice record repeatedly and won. Abortion was a deal breaker for many voters.
In Nevada, the abortion rights referendum won 63% of the vote while the Democratic candidate for governor won just 51%. Similarly it out polled the Democrats in the four House races who averaged 57% of the vote.
In Virginia, the abortion referendum polled 62% about the same as the Democratic candidate for Senate who polled 61%; interestingly, removing the state constitution ban on same sex marriage won just 57%. The Democratic votes in the Virginia House races also averaged 62%.
In Missouri, abortion rights won 55% while Democratic candidates in House races averaged 48%.
Generally, referenda repealing abortion restrictions garners Republican and Independent support.
Other so-called culture war issues turned out less favorably for transgender rights which lost in all four states where it was on the ballot: Arizona, Nebraska, Colorado and Washington. In Missouri, a transgender prohibition combined with an anti-abortion provision lost.
Exit polls show the biggest slide to the Democrats was not among women but among men, who pollsters believe were most disappointed in their lack of progress and opportunity in Trump’s economy.
The Wall Street Journal reported:
“The exit polls show Republicans performing much worse, among nearly all demographic groups, than in the 2022 midterms. Women favored Democrats by a 16-point margin this year, compared with eight points four years ago. But the decline was even greater for men, who favored Republicans by a single point this year, versus 14 in 2022.” See: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/midterm-election-results-2026-latest-updates/card/opinion-the-gop-loses-ground-across-the-board-Voqr7Dh45i4SxsiGxmIR
In other words, women moved 8 points and men 13 points towards the Democrats. The gender gap is still there as it has been in prior elections, but the male disaffection with the Republicans resulted in an even split of their votes and enabled the landslide female vote to carry the day for the Democrats.
White women favored the Democrats by about 51-47, an almost even split. It was non-white women that brought the female vote overwhelmingly Democratic.
Gen Z voters switched sides in 2026 with 70% of them supporting Democrats in 2026, a 33 point shift from 2024.
While the economy was the leading issue, we shouldn’t discount reproductive rights as a motivator for voters to show up and vote. For Gen Z men and women, 80% of men expressed concern about restrictive abortion laws while 85% of women did, with women expressing a higher intensity of concern by 46% to 59% – women have shown more intensity on the issue traditionally.
See: https://urge.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/HIT_URGE_Young-Voters-2026_Deck.pdf
But men, young men especially, were with the pro-legalization side of the abortion debate. They can see it is in their interest (and in the interest of their partners) to have safe legal abortion available.
Don’t discount the Trump Administration attacking abortion legality and availability in the next two years. Abortion pills being mailed across state lines is clearly a target with a non-scientific “review” of the evidence being concocted by its opponents in Washington. The battle will go on, and the pro-choice side will have to continue showing up and making it a loser for the pro-criminalization forces.
