The US Presidential election is fight for various so-called interest groups, and that includes suburban woman and mothers of small children, and want-to-be-mothers of small children. The proposals from the candidates (which evolve daily) concentrate around child care policies, though their stances on abortion rights figure prominently in the calculus of women, or should. In the background, as always in this campaign, are the issues of race and class and ethnicity and country of origin, and who is going to rule this melting pot. And lingering not-so-in-the-shadows, is the Republican Great Replacement Theory where immigrants and their progeny are feared to take over the government. (I wrote on this on July 31).

The Wall Street Journal on October 15, 2024 published an article titled, “Countries Fail to Reverse the Baby Bust.” The article detailed the efforts of two countries and Norway and Hungary to reverse their declining birth rates. The two countries have fertility rates of 1.4 and 1.5 respectively and have been stubborn to change even with programs for parental leave, childcare credits, tax benefits, exemption from income tax and extra vacation days. These programs have made no change in the fertility rates. This is not surprising given other studies showing the same result in other countries. Policies seem to affect, at most, the timing of births and not the number of births.

There is a clear tension between individual reproductive strategies, which tend to parents investing in fewer children since childrearing is so expensive, and government strategies, as one woman said, “to keep the nation alive”, which tend to larger families and less investment in each. Moral issues intrude for some parents who wonder if it is right to have a child in order to get extra vacation time.

In the US, Trump and Harris have leapt into the fray with proposals to help US families raise their children, and in some cases have more. Harris proposed capping child care costs at 7% of income and a $6,000 Child Tax Credit for parents of newborns, with other tax credits for other families with children, including raising the current $2,000 credit per child to $3,600. J. D. Vance has proposed a $5,000 Child Tax Credit per child. How to get well-paid child care workers is another matter, with Republicans seeming to rely on family members to do the job. Paid family leave is another plank that needs attention. Trump’s first term saw the enactment of this policy. It has not been mentioned much so far in the campaign by either side. How to pay for tax credits is left vague, with Trump saying his tariffs on imports would.

These proposals are less drastic than the European models, which have shown virtually no results. It is reasonable to assume they won’t make any difference here either, which shows that the candidates, no surprise, are after votes and not real change to help families.

Reproductive freedom and rights should encompass the ability to have children as well as not to, to have healthy and safe pregnancy as well as to terminate a pregnancy when the woman decides to, to have a healthy child born and thriving with the care the child needs in an environment which makes it all possible. There are massive global forces at work affecting US families – the world economy, prices, environment and pollution, health and pandemics, immigration and migration, education and child care costs. The world’s women in developed and less developed countries have voted with their wombs, saying one or two children is enough. Advances in child and maternal health, as well as contraception and access to safe abortion, have made that possible. Advances in prosperity have been two edged sword, making chances for economic advancement for one’s children more possible and more expensive. Through it all, biology marches on, with parents doing their best, as they see it, for their progeny. Scandinavia generally does a better job supporting parents and children. Our country can do better.

See:

https://www.wsj.com/world/birthrate-children-fertility-europe-perks-family-04aa13a0