The CDC reported last week that births increased by just 1 percent in 2024 with the fertility rate (TFR) remaining level at about 1.6, well below the 2.1 level needed to maintain the population level through births alone (i.e. without immigration). 

At the same time, the Guttmacher Institute estimated that clinician-provided abortions in 2024 in states without a total abortion ban increased also by slightly less than 1 percent from 2023. There were additional abortions of an undetermined number that were not clinician provided. 

The Trump Administration is considering ideas to increase the birth rate, among them a $5,000 baby bonus, tax credits for children, increasing the availability of IVF, and awarding medals to mothers of a certain number of children. Worldwide incentives of this sort have been largely money wasted. My October 16, 2024 post talks about Norway and Hungary’s futile efforts to increase their birthrates. At most, incentives have speeded up childbearing but not increased the number of desired children. Russia awards an Order of Parental Glory to parents of large families. It hasn’t stopped the decline in the Russian TFR. A similar award in France has had no effect either.

The Administration’s cutting of Title X funding for family planning and threatened cuts to Medicaid program (as well as criminalizing abortion if they seek a nationwide ban) will perhaps serve to increase unintended childbearing, especially among teens. The decrease in the national TFR has come because of a reduction in teen pregnancy over the years largely due to better and longer-lasting contraception. Teens and young adults are also reporting having less sex. Criminalizing abortion further and reducing access to contraception may serve as further deterrents to sex and hence pregnancy, but I suspect the pregnancy and childbearing rates will rise among those without access to private family planning services, i.e. the poor and minorities, exactly the groups that the conservative White Replacement Theory folks don’t want to reproduce. 

The issues around infertility and IVF are tying the Administration in knots given the sway of absolutist anti-abortion people in policy circles. The imperatives of couples wanting a child by any means often outweigh their beliefs on abortion. 

The causes of infertility in males and females are debated, but one thing is sure: sexually transmitted infections can cause infertility. And the Administration by cutting reproductive health care programs will be increasing STIs and hence infertility. 

Who ever said politics makes sense.